Sunak faces twin by-election test as polls open in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire

Labour has also downplayed its chances of winning in the contests in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire, which it described as “super safe” seats for the Conservatives.

Polls in both constituencies will open at 7am on Thursday, with the results likely to be known in the early hours of Friday.

Mr Sunak’s press secretary said the by-elections had come about after “difficult local circumstances”.

Former culture secretary Nadine Dorries quit her Mid Bedfordshire seat following a row after she was not given a peerage in former prime minister Boris Johnson’s resignation honours list, accusing Mr Sunak of abandoning “the fundamental principles of conservatism”.

The cause of the Tamworth poll is linked to one of the pivotal moments of Mr Johnson’s downfall.

Chris Pincher, who had represented the Staffordshire seat since 2010, stood down after being found to have drunkenly groped two men in an “egregious case of sexual misconduct” at London’s exclusive Carlton Club last year.

Mr Johnson’s handling of the case last year led to an onslaught of ministerial resignations that forced him out of Downing Street.

Thursday’s electoral battles will be a key test for Mr Sunak’s pitch that the Conservatives represent a vote for change, which he set out at the Tory Party conference after making a number of policy shifts.

Those have included axing the northern route of the HS2 rail project and delaying steps designed to help the UK achieve a net zero carbon economy by 2050.

On Wednesday, the Tory leader declined to condemn an apparent suggestion by the party’s Tamworth candidate that out-of-work parents who cannot afford to feed their children should “f*** off”.

Mr Sunak was asked during Prime Minister’s Questions about a photo of a flowchart shared by Andrew Cooper on Facebook.

The diagram suggested that those who are out of work, pay for “TV Sky/BT/etc”, or “have a phone contract + £30” should “f*** off” rather than seek help.

In reply to the question, the Prime Minister said only that he was “proud of our record supporting people with the cost of living”, before outlining Government policies aimed at supporting people through the crisis.

Mr Cooper told Channel 5 News he was “sorry if I’ve offended somebody” after the post was publicised.

Asked if regretted sharing the image, he said: “Obviously it is not something I would share now in today’s world.

“We obviously mature and have different opinions than we do three years ago.”

He added: “Of course I’m sorry if I’ve offended somebody. But it is very hard in today’s world to have an opinion and not to offend somebody.”

Mr Sunak will not be in the UK when the results come in, having journeyed to Israel following a flare-up of violence in the region after Hamas’s bloody attack on October 7.

The Prime Minister’s press secretary told reporters that “mid-term by-elections are extremely tough for incumbent governments” but said the Tories were “fighting for every vote”.

Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party has held at least a double-digit lead over the Tories in opinion polls for some time.

That gap was borne out in a huge by-election win in Selby and Ainsty, North Yorkshire, in July when Labour overturned a blue 20,000 majority on a 21% swing.

Labour is hoping to repeat the feat on Thursday in Mr Pincher and Ms Dorries’ former seats but has been cautious not to appear complacent, with a spokesman saying it is a “moonshot” to win either or both seats.

He said that neither of the seats feature on “our target list for the general election”.

The spokesman said: “These are in super safe Tory seats that would require for us to overturn results larger than those which we overturned in Selby.

“If we were to win Tamworth and had that swing at a general election, it would mean that the Tories will be down to fewer than 60 seats at the next general election.

“So a little bit of perspective is required here. Tamworth is a seat where the Tories got 66% of the vote at the last election. Mid Bedfordshire is a similarly safe Tory constituency.”

The Tories have held Mid Bedfordshire since 1931 and Ms Dorries held on to it in 2019 by 24,664 votes over second-placed Labour.

The governing party is defending a 19,600 majority in Tamworth.

Ahead of Thursday’s poll opening in Mid Bedfordshire, there has been sustained campaigning by both Labour and the Liberal Democrats — which has pulled off a number of by-election shocks in recent years — in a bid to take it off the Tories.